Towards the end of the conflict with the FARC in Colombia?

Colombia has been experiencing internal conflict for almost 50 years. It opposes the guerrilla movement of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), of Marxist inspiration, to the central government. Despite the lasting distrust, a peace process is nevertheless underway, and could soon see the protagonists reach an agreement. Hosted by Cuba, the talks are already producing convincing results, but there is still a long way to go before achieving reconciliation.

A look back at one of the oldest conflicts on the planet and at the challenges that already arise for the post-conflict…For several weeks, Havana has hosted the peace dialogue between a tired but still active guerrilla, and a government eager to put an end to a conflict which undermines its image on the international scene. Norway and Cuba are the two main mediators, while Venezuela and Chile accompany the process. These countries thus bear the heavy responsibility for the success of these discussions, which have brought together five representatives from each camp since November 2012. On March 19, 2013, the seventh round of negotiations closed with already a first partial success achieved. The chapter on access to and use of land, a highly sensitive theme which, according to the protagonists, is at the origin of the internal conflict, is about to be completed and could well be the subject of an agreement during of the next meeting. In this country, the concentration of land is alarming. According to the United Nations, it is one of the most unequal countries in terms of land distribution: 52 % of agricultural land is in the hands of barely 1% of the population ^[1] The “Gini” index of rural property concentration in Colombia is 0.85, while the maximum rate of inequality is set at 1.. These large landowners have always blocked any large-scale agrarian reform thanks to their control of power. In addition, this situation has been compounded by the grabbing of 6.6 million hectares of land over the last 20 years by various organizations (drug traffickers, paramilitaries, large landowners and other criminal gangs). There are millions of farmers, including the 5 million displaced during the internal conflict, who are waiting for justice to be done. Hope It now appears that the tide is turning. Of nearly 114 million hectares of land, the government says it is ready to redistribute 56. An advance considered too timid by some, it has the merit of establishing a climate of confidence around the negotiating table. In the opinion of Andrés Paris, FARC delegate in Havana, “Compared to previous peace processes, during which the parties could not even agree on the agenda or specific work themes, the progress here is significant. This is a reason for hope! » ^[2] Interview carried out by the Mexican weekly “El Proceso” on April 3, 2013 and entitled “Luces de la Paz”.. The last dialogues in Caracas (1991-1992), Tlaxcala (1992) and El Caguán (1998-2002) were in fact marked by bitter failures. The current success can be explained by the convergence of forces that exists and the common desire to achieve a comprehensive peace agreement. There obviously remain other important themes to be discussed over the next two months, such as the substitution of illicit crops, electoral reforms, the guarantee that the guerrillas can participate in political life... If all goes well in Havana, we is far from reaching consensus within the country. Debates are lively between different sections of the population who experience very different situations depending on their geographical distribution. Thus, nearly 65 % of Colombians reside in large cities which have been spared violence throughout this conflict. The FARC has continued to be distanced from large urban centers through repressive policies orchestrated by recent governments. These populations are supporters of this state violence. Only 10 % of the population have been directly affected by the conflict, most of them peasants and other settlers from remote lands where bombs rain and abuses are legion. These are the mountainous areas and the Colombian jungle, forgotten by everyone. They believe that concessions must be made to both parties. There is also a part of the population (5%) who would have a lot to lose from a resolution of the conflict: large landowners, illegal groups and other local elites who have illicitly grabbed land and who will, in the event of peace, have to return them to their displaced owners... These societal divisions explain why this peace process is taking place across borders! If we did a quick survey among the Belgian or European population, we would realize that the internal conflict is now considered to be an extinct conflict. This is explained by the remoteness of the conflict from urban areas, which gives it less international media coverage. However, cases of violence have not decreased. In 2012, there were more than 300 attacks carried out by the FARC, mainly on energy and communications infrastructure. This is even slightly more than 20 years ago, at the very height of the conflict. The modus operandi has indeed changed, explains Ariel Avila, of the Colombian NGO Nuevo Arco Iris ^[3]http://www.arcoiris.com.co : “Before, the FARC used 300 fighters to take a medium-sized provincial town. With the exacerbation of repression, it has become more difficult for them to continue to achieve victories using this technique. They are in fact violently bombarded by the army, with cutting-edge technological equipment. Now confined to the rural areas of the country, they are content with acts of sabotage and other so-called “terrorist” crimes in order to continue to perpetuate the conflict...”. Demobilization Even if it continues to reign supreme over more than 150 Colombian localities, the guerrillas are weakened and are increasingly devoted to the political management of the areas they occupy, without any desire for military projection beyond. Its strength now only numbers 8,000 fighters – half as many as 10 years ago – and is dwindling daily due, mainly, to desertions but also to a lesser extent to army operations. The search for peace is now the priority. But the government is not left out. After decades of conflict, he also realizes that total victory is impossible. If it can manage to push the FARC to the borders of the country, the popular support enjoyed by the guerrillas ensures its long-term survival. The main challenge facing both parties in the post-conflict period will be that of demobilization. “The strength of the Colombian army numbers 480,000 soldiers, making it the 2nd contingent after Brazil on the continent. In a phase of peace, and despite the permanence of paramilitary and illegal groups which will remain, this number will have to be reduced by 25 % very quickly. What are we going to do with these men? How can we ensure that they do not slide into organized crime, once they have no professional occupation? “, asks Ariel Avila. For the FARC, there are nearly 20,000 people (soldiers and sympathizers) who will have to find a new reason for being. The very struggle for the equitable redistribution of land predestines the FARC to reconvert itself to the political management of rural localities. Building on the network already established in recent years, they will undoubtedly have no difficulty in carrying out these new functions. But given the climate of violence that remains, the main challenge will be to ensure the security of the former guerrillas. “Illegal groups will rush to demobilized areas, most often to extract natural resources and to carry out trafficking and money laundering activities. We fear a strategy of systematic elimination of the FARC,” worries Ariel Avila. It is essential that Colombia be supported by other countries in this peace process, but also in post-conflict management. If its neighbors seem to be moving in this direction, it seems obvious to us that the European Union should also actively support the approach. While free trade agreements have just been ratified between the EU and this country, our leaders cannot omit some form of cooperation on these security issues, an area in which the EU has expertise which must be shared in order to work for the establishment of lasting peace in Colombia… Santiago Fischer

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