Japan: defense (r)evolutions

The worsening of the territorial conflict between China and Japan around the Senkaku Islands and the recent increase in the Japanese defense budget have aroused the concern of certain observers who perceive this situation as so many indications of a remilitarization of the country. However, these developments can only be fully understood by taking into account Japan's military history and analyzing the internal and external factors of these developments.

On May 13, three Chinese government ships entered the territorial waters of the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu in Chinese) disputed with Japan in the East China Sea. This is the latest incident in the showdown in which the two countries have engaged since Tokyo nationalized three of the five islands by purchasing them from their private owners in September 2012. China has since regularly sent ships, but also occasionally planes around this uninhabited archipelago, while at the same time, Tokyo announced the creation of a special force of 600 men and 12 ships to monitor and protect the Senkaku. This firm position in relation to China was favored by the return to power of the PLD (Conservative Liberal Democratic Party)^[1]The LDP has also governed Japan almost continuously since its creation in 1955, except for a ten-month interlude between 1993 and 1994, and between August 2009 and December 2012 following... Continue reading during the legislative elections of December 2012. This domination of the PLD particularly worries pacifists, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe having included an increase in military spending in his electoral program. He did not deviate from his reputation as a “hawk” in matters of foreign policy by warning in April that Japan would expel by force any possible Chinese landing on the Senkaku. In a context where the Japanese security environment is increasingly tense, and while North Korea carried out two missile test launches last year and a nuclear test in February, a growing number of voices are pleading in in favor of a more aggressive foreign policy free from the influence of the United States. This would distance it from the principles which have, over the last decades, shaped Japan's defense policy. Particularity of Japanese defense Officially, following its military defeat at the end of the Second World War, Japan does not have an army, but Self-Defense Forces (FAD). Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution of 1945 states that “there shall never be maintained land, naval or air forces, or any other war potential in Japan”. In fact, however, Japan quickly formed the foundations of what would become a real army, American strategists having realized in 1950 that a rearmed Japan was crucial for the stability of the region due to the Korean War initially. time, then the Cold War in a second^[2] AKN Ahmed, “An Emerging Military Power”, Economic and Political Weekly, vol. 23, N.34, August 20, 1988, p. 1738. In this respect, 2004 constitutes a decisive turning point, with the sending, for the first time since the end of the Second World War, of Japanese troops on foreign soil.^[3]Notably the sending of members of the FAD to Cambodia in 1991 and 53 peacekeepers to Mozambique in 1993.. This trend toward “normalization” of Japan continued until 2011, when the country opened its first permanent overseas military base in Djibouti. Engaged since 2009 in the fight against piracy off the coast of Somalia, the FAD have therefore been able to benefit from installations alongside the French and American military already established in the Horn of Africa. Drivers of change These developments have been caused mainly by the many changes that have occurred on the international scene since the end of the Cold War. Far from causing Japan to lose its strategic role, the fall of the USSR on the contrary strengthened it and reestablished it as a key player in the new geopolitics taking shape in South-East Asia. In this respect, the first Gulf War was decisive for Japan, causing what some commentators have called a real “shock”^[4]Hiroshi Nakanishi, “The Gulf War and Japanese diplomacy”, December 16, 2012, www.nippon.com . Contenting itself with purely economic assistance, Tokyo faced criticism from countries sending troops, notably the United States. The realization of its powerlessness in the face of an international conflict, even though it was at the height of its economic prosperity, led Japan to realize that its troops could not remain on the sidelines of international initiatives. He thus provided unfailing support to the United States, in the form of a naval logistical support mission in Afghanistan, then by sending a peacekeeping unit to Iraq in 2003. A defense more pragmatic than aggressive Despite façade rhetoric, everything suggests that an in-depth overhaul of Japanese defense policy is not the government's priority. Since coming to power, Shinzo Abe has devoted his attention to restarting the Japanese economy. Even more, Japan is even an exception in Asia^[5] Edouard Pflimlin, “Japan relaunches its military spending in the face of the Chinese threat”, Le Monde, January 9, 2013. While India's military spending has increased by 59% since 2002 and that of Vietnam by 83% since 2003, Japan has reduced it by 2.5% between 2002 and 2011.^[6]Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Yearbook 2012, p. 154. The trend is towards cooperation. In 2009, the Japanese Navy held a joint military exercise with Australia and has since taken part in numerous multinational maneuvers in Southeast Asia. Agreements were also signed with Singapore and the Philippines. The country therefore seems to be increasingly perceived as the only nation in the region whose maritime power is sufficient to counterbalance that of China.^[7]Martin Fackler, “Japan is Flexing its Military Muscle to Counter a Rising China”, The New York Times, November 26, 2012, and many countries are willing to put aside the experience of World War II to benefit from its protection. Currently, Japan is trying to make a return to the global and regional scene, while the rise of China and the provocations of North Korea prevent it from breaking away from the American dome. Although Japan's defense has evolved to adapt to its new environment, no desire for regional domination can be attributed to Tokyo. In the short and medium term, Japan will therefore probably be required to maintain its role as an ally of the Americans in Asia and other countries feeling threatened by Beijing. Across Southeast Asia, advanced military systems are proliferating in a region lacking any mechanisms to defuse a potential crisis, while bilateral military relations remain at an embryonic stage.^[8]Alicia PQ Wittmeyer, “Why Japan and China could accidentally end up at war”, Foreign Policy, March 19, 2013. It is in this context also marked by mutual distrust that a tangible risk of military escalation remains particularly probable. Relations between Japan and its neighbors are made of economic interdependence and mistrust due to its imperialist past. Breaking the vicious circle that fuels this feeling of mutual distrust is therefore essential. This is why it is important that actors outside the region, such as the European Union or the United States, encourage countries in the region to develop consultation institutions in order to prevent and manage possible crises. This will contribute to the stability and security of a region which now occupies strategic importance in the world order. Japan during the Cold War During the Cold War, Japanese defense policy followed the guidelines of the “Yoshida Doctrine,” through which Japan renounced playing a global strategic role, placing the country under the military protection of the United States, while Tokyo focused on its economic recovery and development. The progressive development of the FAD during the 1970s and 1980s was carried out in consultation with the United States; the Japanese forces having the main function of complementing the American forces, from a purely defensive perspective. LTN Laetitia Tran Ngoc

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